The Daily Dish - January 12, 2012

LeQuitter got engaged over the holidays. At least someone in his family has a ring now. Hopefully for her he doesn’t leave the wedding ceremony 12 minutes early like it’s a crucial playoff game.

Kelly Clarkson was selected to sing the national anthem at the Super Bowl. Few things were funnier than last year when Christina Aguilera screwed up the lyrics. I got several months worth of jokes out of that last winter. The last five people selected for this honor: Aguilera, Carrie Underwood, Jennifer Hudson, Jordin Sparks, and Billy Joel. The over/under on how long it will take Clarkson to sing it has been set at 1 minute and 54 seconds by several of the more notable online sportsbooks. I love how you can bet on that! I make that wager every year. After reviewing some tapes of Clarkson, I am leaning towards the under this year.

Madonna will perform the halftime show. The bar has been set insanely low for her performance by The Who and The Black Eyed Peas, both of whom were god-awful the past two years. Man do I miss the days of going to huge parties at bars for the Super Bowl where I didn’t hear nor care about the halftime performer. I didn’t even know about the Janet Jackson “wardrobe malfunction” until the following day back in 2004.

Worst part about the whole Janet Jackson thing is that it has terrified the NFL into hiring these over the hill, acceptable to all Americans performers like the Stones, Who, Madonna, et al.

Bottom line – my girl Katy Perry should have got the nod.

List of the Super Bowl halftime performers, post-wardrobe malfunction (which featured P. Diddy, Nelly, Kid Rock, and Justin Timberlake in ADDITION to Janet J): Paul McCartney, The Rolling Stones, Prince, Ton Petty, Bruce Springsteen (good pick there), The Who, The Black Eyed Peas, Madonna.

‘Nuff said.

Quote of the Day …

“The critical ingredient is getting off your butt and doing something. It’s as simple as that. A lot of people have ideas, but there are few who decide to do something about them now. Not tomorrow. Not next week. But today. The true entrepreneur is a doer, not a dreamer.” ~ Nolan Bushnell

Market …

Got two big pieces of data released this morning at 8:30 AM EST. Weekly first-time jobless claims and retail sales figures for Dec. Both #’s came in much worse than expected.

Let’s start with jobless claims, the gauge of how many people each week are filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It’s a top indicator of the national employment picture. The # had been trending down in recent weeks, bottoming out at 372,000 last week. Expectations for this week’s # were 375,000. It came in at 399,000. That’s a pretty big miss.

Retail sales for Dec – expectations are that they would rise 0.4% from November’s totals, and rise 0.3% from Nov when you strip out volatile automobile sales #’s. The overall retail sales # only rose 0.1%, and the total less auto sales actually fell 0.2% from Nov.

Yesterday, stocks traded sideways. Dow ended up down 13 points. Treasury and mortgage bonds ended the session slightly higher on continued Eurozone worries, as Germany (the region’s largest and strongest economy) reported that its GDP contracted in the 4th quarter of last year.

The markets didn’t react violently one way or another to the release of the Fed Beige Book yesterday. In it, Fed Presidents from around the country said that economic activity increased “at a modest to moderate pace”, but acknowledged the continued weakness in the housing market. While the report showed a moderate pace of expansion across various other sectors, including consumer spending and nonfinancial services, residential housing continues to be a HUGE area of concern.

We’ve been saying it for years now. Only so much of an economic recovery can occur without a MAJOR improvement in the still crippled housing market. I think the Fed and Congress now finally get it, now that Bernanke has beaten Congress over the head with a white paper saying as much. I am anticipating major federal housing policy initiatives in 2012 as we head into the Presidential election. I’d be shocked if we don’t see all of the following initiatives pushed through by Obama as he looks to bolster his re-election hopes and to help fix US housing:

REO to rental program – Encourage lenders and investors who own REO properties to rent them out instead of try and sell ‘em at bottom dollar prices, which is dragging down home values.

Expanded loan modification program for borrowers in default – Provide more/better options for borrowers who are in default to modify the terms of their loan to make them able to pay, which will prevent homes from going into foreclosure, which also drags down home prices.

Expanded refinance program for underwater borrowers – We’re likely to see something in between the newly expanded refinance program rolled out by Fannie/Freddie on Dec 1, and the trillion-dollar “Refinances For Everyone!” program that it is rumored that Obama wants to unleash … allowing more underwater home owners to refinance into more favorable terms.

Kind of a tug of war right now in the markets. This morning’s news aside, the US economy seems to be improving. But the European economy continues to teeter on the brink of a major recession.

News …

~ Retail Sales Up Slim 0.1% in December

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-up-slim-01-in-dec-2012-01-12

~ US Jobless Claims Rise 24,000 to 399,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-rise-24000-to-399000-2012-01-12

~ US Foreclosure Filings Hit Four-Year Low in 2011

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45968837

~ Jimmy Dimora Trial Set to Begin Today

http://www.cleveland.com/countyincrisis/index.ssf/2012/01/jimmy_dimora_trial_a_guide_to.html

~ How Met Life’s Exit Will Impact the Mortgage Industry – Will Others Follow?

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/01112012-metlife-residential-lending.aspx

~ Fed Survey Showed Economy Ended 2011 with Strength

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/01/federal_reserve_survey_shows_e.html