It’s hard to think about baseball with the weather this cold … but we’re just a little over three weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training.
It could be a long year for the Tribe. They’re expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball and lose close to 100 games. Last year they finished 65-97, and they added nothing of significance this off-season. And unlike last season, they go into 2010 without even one starting pitcher that is anything close to a sure thing in the rotation. The fact that the team is hopeful that Jake Westbrook (who missed all of last year and has a reconstructed right elbow) will be their opening day starter says it all.
Weird things can happen in the sport of baseball though. And these past 6-7 years, the times the Indians have had good teams … it’s been when we were least expecting it.
The Indians offense was average to above average last year, and that was without Grady Sizemore for much of the season. Guys like Michael Brantley, Luis Valbuena, and Matt LaPorta (all expected to be starters this year) started to come on late. And players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo-Choo had breakout seasons and appear poised to do even more here in 2010. I’m not worried about the offense. And if LaPorta and mega-catching prospect Carlos Santana live up to the hype, the offense could be very good.
It all comes down to the pitching. I think the bullpen has the potential to be pretty good, and one thing we’ve seen with the Indians this past decade is that the years they’ve been good have been the years they’ve had good bullpens. We’ve got Kerry Wood at the back end, and Chris Perez and Tony Sipp really emerged last season and could be dominant 8th inning guys for us. There are some other intriguing arms that should fill out the pen for us. The rotation is a huge question mark though. Westbrook is coming off elbow surgery and Carmona has been maddeningly unable to harness his talent and get people out. We need those two guys to anchor the top of the rotation if the Indians have any chance of playing meaningful games in the fall. You’d hope that former #1 pick David Huff (who won 11 games last season) and Justin Masterson (centerpiece of the Victor Martinez trade) would fill in the 3 and 4 spots. Leaving Carlos Carrasco (acquired from Philly in the Cliff Lee trade), promising prospect Hector Rondon, and holdovers Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers to compete for the final spot.
Bottom line, the Indians are counting on a lot of young players this season. Many things would have to go right for the team for them to have a chance at staying in the race into September, even in a division as weak as the AL Central. It doesn’t lessen my excitement for the start of the season one iota though.
Quote of the day …
“I’m going to give you a little advice. There’s a force in the universe that makes things happen. And all you have to do is get in touch with it, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.” ~ Chevy Chase, as Ty Webb, in the comedic classic ‘Caddyshack’
Market …
Well, the recession is officially over.
That doesn’t mean the recovery isn’t going to be slow, painful, and that the unemployment picture here in America won’t remain poor for some time. I believe they will.
But this morning’s announcement from the Commerce Department that fourth quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product, the measure of the size of the US economy as a whole) rose 5.7% really puts an official end to the worst recession we’ve seen in this country since the 1930’s. It’s the second straight quarter of growth after four consecutive quarters of decline. The report provided an upbeat end to an otherwise dismal year: The nation’s economy declined 2.4% in 2009, the largest drop since 1946.
It’s not all wine and roses with this # though. Even though the results bested economist’s expectations of growth of roughly 4.6%, the better than expected expansion in the fourth quarter was fueled mostly by companies refilling depleted stockpiles, a trend that will eventually fade. Additionally, economists expect growth to slow this year as companies finish restocking inventories and as government stimulus efforts fade. Many estimate the nation’s GDP growth will slow to a 3.0% rate in the current quarter and to about 2.5% for 2010 as a whole.
Still, the markets are going to like this. This news, on top of better than expected earnings reports from Amazon, Microsoft, and Mattel … and Big Ben Bernanke’s Senate confirmation (markets like Big Ben) yesterday, and we should see a good day for stocks. And a not so good day for safer fixed income instruments like treasuries and mortgage backed securities.
Have a nice weekend everyone! A lot of good news links below …
News …
~ US GDP Surges 5.7% in the Fourth Quarter, Besting Expectations
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-surges-57-on-inventory-slowdown-2010-01-29?dist=beforebell
~ HAMP Guidelines Update to Improve Loan Mod Conversion Rate
~ Fed MBS Purchase Program: 89 Billion Left to Spend
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/01282010_fed_agency_mbs_purchases.asp
~ Obama Retools Tax Credit Idea for Creating Jobs
~ “Bank of America is Not Too Big” Says CEO
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35140158
~ Bernanke Confirmed: But Battles are Far From Over
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35124202
~ Barney Frank: Banks Complaining About Taxes is “Outrageous”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35140455
~ Stock Futures Higher After Strong GDP Report
Comments