Do the Cavaliers need to make a trade? The NBA trade deadline is looming. The Cavs are kicking the tires on potential deals for a big forward to replace J.J. Hickson in the starting lineup and really fill out their already talented team. Washington’s Antawn Jamison and Indiana’s Troy Murphy are the two most likely targets … though the recent injury to the Hornet’s Chris Paul could put David West back into play as well.
There are two schools of thought on this. The first is that the Cavs must do everything humanly possible to win a title this season. It’s been 46 years since Cleveland has won a championship, LeBron James’ contract is up at season’s end, and we felt really good last year about our chances before the team was absolutely ham-hawked in the Eastern Conference Finals by Orlando. With four good teams in the East (Hawks, Celtics, Magic the others) and the Lake Show looming as a probable Finals opponent, the team is going to have three consecutive seven game series that are going to be very difficult. And while this team is rolling now, and has great depth, you can’t be deep enough in the playoffs, and you never know when an injury can strike and affect that aforementioned depth.
Then there’s the school of thought that this team is indeed good enough and that there’s no need to deal young talent and risk upsetting chemistry. We have the best record in the league, the best depth in the league, and are just annihilating good teams (like Memphis last night) without key guys like Mo Williams and Delonte West. Any type of deal that will yield anything relevant will mean the team will have to move lifetime Cavalier and legendary good guy Zydrunas Ilgauskas (his expiring contract is what teams are interested in), promising young forward J.J. Hickson, and probably a draft pick or two.
I have no problem trading Hickson. He has potential, yes. But he’s been primarily the benefactor of LeBron and Shaq double teams this season, and about 70% of his field goals are rim-rattling dunks, making him seem more valuable than he is. He’s still a liability defensively, and still can’t box out consistently to keep the opponents off the glass. In the playoffs, the team would be hard pressed to be able to count on him for anything more than the first six minutes of the 1st and 3rd quarters before they bring in Varejao, who the team prefers to use as the sixth man. Getting a guy like Jamison or Murphy to plug into Hickson’s spot in the starting lineup is clearly appealing, and would make this team scary. And I’m not sure Hickson’s upside is anything more than former Cavalier airhead Drew Gooden.
At the end of the day, I think what it’s going to come down to is Ilgauskas. If the Cavs can deal him to a team that would agree to buy his contract out in 30 days (at which point he could be resigned by the Cavaliers) I think they’ll be willing to strike a deal. Not only do the Cavaliers think the world of Big Z, but they (rightly) feel he still has value to this team. If they can get a team like Indiana or Washington to agree to buying him out, then it all comes down to what the Cavaliers are offering versus what someone else may be offering. To a team that’s out of it, a 12 million dollar expiring contract (which frees up cap space, takes dollars off the ’10-’11 payroll), a promising young player like Hickson, and a first round pick … it’s a pretty appealing package.
And by popular request, a couple pictures of “Patches”:
Quote of the day …
“Experience taught me a few things. One is to listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper. The second is that you’re generally better off sticking with what you know. And the third is that sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make.” ~ Donald Trump
Market …
Jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s going to be the focus of all the financial markets for the remainder of this week.
Friday is the big national employment report. Expectations are that the unemployment rate in the US will remain at right around 10.0%, and that the economy actually added a small amount of jobs (estimates are 10,000-30,000) in January, which would be just the second monthly gain in the last two years. Tomorrow, we get first time jobless claims. It’s also expected to improve. Last week there were 470,000 people who filed for unemployment for the first time. This week the # is expected to be about 450,000. And this morning … we got the ADP private sector employment report, which does not include government jobs. ADP reported that private sector firms shed 22,000 jobs in January, which was actually a little better than the -30,000 # that was expected. Additionally, ADP revised December’s private sector job losses down from 84,000 to 61,000.
The slightly better than expected news has investors more bullish about the aforementioned jobs reports, which will follow in the coming days, and has helped stock futures, which were poised to open down after two days of gains. And it’s hurting safer fixed income assets like treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Market rate MBS are down 6/32 (about 20 basis points) in early trading.
News …
~ Private Sector Sheds 22,000 Jobs in January says ADP
~ Challenger: Planned Layoffs Rise for First Time Since July
~ Mortgage Applications Hit Six-Week High on Increased Refinances
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35213452
~ Obama Budget Attacked, Defended
~ PNC Repays the Loan Used to Purchase National City
http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2010/02/pnc_repays_its_76_billion_gove.html
~ Study: Consumers Pay Credit Cards Before Mortgage
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35212475
~ Stock Futures Mixed After Jobs Data
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